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After eight years of waiting for Ukraine to implement the Minsk Accords, Vladimir Putin has finally lost his patience with NATO gossip and arrogant threats.
From the Minsk agreements to today
The Minsk Protocol aims to put an end to the war resulting from the coup organized by the CIA to house former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who preferred signing lucrative gas contracts with Russia rather than an association agreement with the European Union that leads directly to NATO membership.
These agreements were signed in 2014 by Ukraine, Russia and the Russian-speaking Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. It was expected that these breakaway regions would obtain a special status that would give them wide autonomy in many areas, such as a federal state.
Unfortunately, the pieces were not put together. Whose fault is it? Tricky question. However, one thing is certain, we would not be here if the United States did not interfere in the internal affairs of a sovereign country, for the thousandth time…
Moreover, the separatist regions are currently living in peace, without Ukrainian bombardment, for the first time in eight years … Fireworks erupted when the Russian president recognized their independence:
Tensions have risen since Joe Biden came to power. The latter has attached Ukrainians to NATO integration with the express aim of provoking Russia, which demands that Ukraine be a neutral country like Switzerland or Austria.
The inevitable happened. Ultimately, the Russian bear lost patience after several weeks of war media plowing and scrambling in the Donbass. According to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, a military invasion of the territories of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Kherson, Mykolaiv and Odessa (naval landings) is underway.
Intense bombardment neutralized Ukraine’s air force, air and naval defenses and drones at night from Wednesday to Thursday. The means of communication were also cut off by electronic attacks.
As of this writing, Kyiv airport is already reported to be in the hands of Russian paratroopers backed by an attack helicopter attack. Russian tanks will be only tens of kilometers from the Ukrainian capital.
So, after years of growing hostility and economic sanctions, Moscow has finally stopped all it can. The Russian army has not only the largest stockpile of nuclear missiles (Sarmat, Avangard), but also « Kinzhal » air-to-surface (Mach 12) and « Zircon » sea-to-surface missiles (Mach 9, nine times the speed of sound) much higher of those of NATO. However, none of these hypersonic weapons were used, with the exception of the oldest Iskander (Mach 7 ballistic missiles). The death toll reached hundreds of Russians and Ukrainians.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said: Russia’s attack on Ukraine shakes the foundations of the international systemThis statement sums up the situation well. The takeover of Ukraine could stir up a global geopolitical divide, forcing each country to choose its side, as it did during the Cold War.
Unless President Volodymyr Zelensky realizes that NATO will not act and that Uncle Sam used his country as bait to smear Russia in the eyes of Western opinion:
On Thursday he asked « Who is ready to fight with us? » « I don’t see anyone. Who is ready to give Ukraine a guarantee of NATO membership? Everyone is afraid. »
Indeed, French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said that in “Europe, no one wants to go to war with Russia« .
Now that the Ukrainian president is on his own, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Putin is ready to talk to the Ukrainian leadership about neutrality and disarmament. Things can settle down soon.
Meanwhile, here are F.’s statements. Putin Pre-Invasion (in French).
What are the geopolitical consequences?
The West has more than just economic sanctions at its disposal to try to dissuade Putin. And also…
The problem is that Europe is not at all self-sufficient in energy. We import 95% of our oil and 85% of our gas, 33% and 40% respectively from Russia. Hence the analysis of Transformation Project Head Jean-Marc Jankovici:
« Between Europe, which has a “physical” possibility to deprive Russians of financial transactions (which take place through the SWIFT network that it controls), and Russia, which has a “physical” possibility to put the Union in a state of shortage of gas and oil (and hence electricity as well) who has ?»
Carrying out this threat would be like shooting yourself in the foot. « If the Russians shut down NordStreamI, the German electricity grid will have a good chance of exploding, and … Europe will also not have financial transactions, because electricity is required for its implementation« , he added.
It would also be a decision that goes beyond European borders given the importance of Russian energy resources to the global energy market. Russia produces 11% of the world’s oil, and 8.4% of it is exported. Turning off the tap would have pushed the price of a barrel to an all-time high, around $150, the limit that was at the origin of the oil crisis.Mortgage.
It should also be noted that Russia accounts for 45% of the world’s supply of palladium (necessary for wind turbine magnets), 15% of platinum (fertilizer, semiconductors), or 5% of wheat.
In addition, Ukraine has the first European reserves of uranium. It is also the largest European producer of ammonia (fertilizer) and the third largest exporter of iron in the world. The country ranks second in manganese (steel and batteries), eighth for wheat and first for sunflower oil. We are simply talking about the largest area of arable land in Europe.
In other words, inflation will continue to climb when it is already at its highest levels in several decades. In the case of the black scenario, which no one wants, food prices could explode, just like energy prices.
Despite these risks, Germany had already complied with imperial wishes by suspending operation of the NordStream II gas pipeline that would have met 20% of German demand. As a reminder, 55% of its gas imports come from Russia, but also 50% of coal and 35% of oil.
So much so that, despite the war and the threat of sanctions, European energy suppliers have just said they are ready to buy more Russian natural gas through Ukrainian gas pipelines. You read correctly. Europe will buy more natural gas. from Russia. through Ukraine. from today.
Are central banks jumping at the printing opportunity?
This is the question already asked by Reuters, which indicates that the governors of the European Central Bank met on Thursday, February 24 at an informal meeting in Paris. and this time »Russia’s invasion of Ukraine threatens to derail economic growth in the eurozone and complicate the European Central Bank’s exit from negative interest rates« .
The news agency specifies that the goal is to prepare for the March 10th meeting, which should be « Paving the way for the first rate hike in over a decade to tackle surprisingly high inflation« . »But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changed the rules of the game« .
Reuters then quoted Greek Governor Yiannis Stournaras as saying that the consequences of this conflict will be « Deflation in the medium to long term due to negative effects on trade« . »The European Central Bank should continue to buy debt at least until the end of the year.”
What worries…
Austrian Central Bank Governor Robert Holzmann was also quick to seize the opportunity to suggest that the European Central Bank should « Postpone the end of alarm clocks« .
A large number of analysts have rushed to the breach, such as Frederic Ducrozet, a strategist at Pictet, who argues that the conquest « It will make the ECB more cautious and may delay the decision to reduce bond purchases« .
But also Chris Scicluna (Daiwa Capital Markets) who actually agrees that the Ukraine crisis »Slowing the pace of monetary policy normalization by the European Central Bank“, or even Karsten Brzeski (ING) who thinks the ECB can.”Refrain from setting a firm date for the end of the asset purchase program at the March 10 meeting« .
Same story in the US where Mohamed El-Erian (formerly Pimco) launched what many heard said the Fed would not raise rates in the end. « Eight or nine interest rate hikes that markets were expecting this year are now completely out of the question»:
One crisis replaces another, each time providing an excuse to perpetuate the reckless rush of debt synonymous with inflation. The price rally looks really bad and bitcoin’s price is likely to rise above $100,000 much sooner than expected.
Let’s end by reminding that, after all, Ukraine was the scene of another proxy war after the war in Syria. Above all, let us not lose sight of the great geopolitical game. The war in Ukraine is only an extension of the gigantic confrontation in the name of petrodollar hegemony. See this article for more explanation.
The « exorbitant privilege » of the dollar is the root of almost all wars. It is time for the world to adopt a stateless and uncensored reserve currency with the hallmarks of an ideal value store.
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Nicholas Terrell
Journalist reporting on the Bitcoin revolution. My papers deal with bitcoin through geopolitical, economic, and libertarian leaflets.
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